Wedgewood's Game 1 Stumble Won't Trigger a Goalie Swap in Denver

Scott Wedgewood took a beating in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final, surrendering four goals on 27 shots as Colorado collapsed in the third period and lost 4-2 to Vegas. The Presidents' Trophy winners, who had cruised through the first two rounds with minimal resistance, suddenly looked vulnerable—down 3-0 early in the final frame before mounting a failed comeback.

The loss has sparked speculation about whether Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar should pull the plug on Wedgewood and insert Mackenzie Blackwood, the team's capable backup, for Game 2 on Friday night. Blackwood started the last two games in Round 2 against Minnesota and showed he could hold his own at this stage. But there's a crucial difference between having a good option and yanking your starter after a single poor performance in a seven-game series.

Wedgewood's underlying metrics in Game 1 tell a more forgiving story than the final score suggests. A 3.70 goals-against average over 27 shots is nothing to celebrate, but it's not a wholesale collapse either—the third-period breakdown was as much about Colorado's defensive structure failing to hold the 3-0 lead as it was about the goalie's individual performance. Bednar has preached consistency; making a panic goalie swap after Game 1 would undercut that message and risk losing Wedgewood's confidence for the remainder of the series. Blackwood has also seen limited playoff action and pulling him off the bench to start a Western Conference Final game introduces its own volatility.

From a betting perspective, this matters because Vegas' expected goals model will inevitably tighten in Game 2. The Golden Knights generated high-quality chances in Game 1—they didn't just win off volume. If Colorado sticks with Wedgewood, the market will adjust goalie save percentages downward for him, pricing in a measure of regression. But Wedgewood's career playoff SV% sits at .907, not outlier territory, meaning Game 1 was more variance spike than a signal that he's unplayable. The Under on Colorado's team total becomes more attractive if they're forced into a defensive reset rather than abandoning their starter.

If Blackwood does enter the crease, that's a different calculus—new matchup dynamics, cold-starter risk, and a potential jolt to team energy. For now, expect Wedgewood to get another start, and expect the Avalanche to play tighter defense in front of him. The market will price that corrective behavior; smart money should be fading panic-driven line moves based on Game 1's third-period collapse.