NHL
Carter Hart Is Carrying Vegas, But the Golden Knights Need More Shots to Close Out Anaheim
Vegas won Game 1 on 22 shots and a third-period miracle — that formula won't hold, and the sharps know it.
The Vegas Golden Knights take a 1-0 series lead into Game 2 against the Anaheim Ducks on Wednesday, but the margin was thinner than the scoreline suggests. Ivan Barbashev's goal at 15:02 of the third period bailed out a Golden Knights team that managed just 22 shots on Lukas Dostal — a number that is unsustainably low for a team with this much offensive firepower. Vegas has now passed Tampa Bay for the most playoff wins since 2017-18 with 67 total, a milestone GM Kelly McCrimmon called "fantastic," but the path to extending that record runs through a significant adjustment in shot generation.
The offensive ceiling on this roster is not in question. Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel are tied for the team lead with nine playoff points apiece, and Brett Howden has quietly emerged as Vegas's most dangerous goal-scorer with five on the postseason. What's holding the Golden Knights back in this series isn't talent — it's execution. Anaheim's Dostal has been exploitable: he surrendered four or more goals in four of his six appearances during the first round. Vegas left points on the ice in Game 1 by cycling below their shot-attempt baseline, and head coach John Tortorella will have that film in front of his group all morning.
On the other side of the puck, Carter Hart continues to be the quietest pillar of this run. Thirty-three saves in Game 1 follow a series-clinching Game 6 performance against Utah where he was equally dominant. His 2.49 GAA and .910 save percentage across seven playoff appearances paint the picture of a goaltender who found another gear when Tortorella took over the bench. The Ducks are dealing with their own injury attrition — Radko Gudas sat out Game 1, and Troy Terry is visibly compromised — which puts even more pressure on Dostal to steal games Anaheim isn't equipped to win in a conventional shootout.
For tonight's props, the shots-on-goal market is where the value lives. Vegas's 22-shot Game 1 output is a floor-level anomaly, not a trend. Eichel, Marner, and Hertl all generate volume independently; expect regression toward the mean with team totals pushing into the 30-plus range. Eichel's individual shots prop — typically set around 3.5 in a series like this — is worth targeting over, given that he posted eight assists in the playoffs on a line that is designed to manufacture zone time. On the Anaheim side, Hart's saves prop becomes interesting if Vegas does push the pace: more Ducks chances means more work for Hart, and his recent form suggests he'll handle the volume cleanly.
The health picture tips further in Vegas's favor. William Karlsson returned for Game 1, and while Jeremy Lauzon is out, Ben Hutton — a 2023 Cup champion with this franchise — steps in without a drop in experience. Anaheim is navigating this series shorthanded in more ways than one. Vegas is the deeper, healthier team playing at home. If Tortorella gets the shot-generation response he needs from his top six, this game should not be as close as Game 1, and the over on team shots and individual volume props for Eichel and Marner looks like the clearest edge on the board.