Will Smith's sophomore platform: San Jose's second weapon is ready to cash in on Celebrini's gravity

Will Smith didn't disappear last season; he was simply eclipsed. Macklin Celebrini's 115 points and 45 goals commanded every headline in San Jose, but the rookie winger's 59 points in 69 games—a 70-point annualized rate—tells a sharper story about the Sharks' trajectory. Smith wasn't a secondary beneficiary of Celebrini's rise; he was an architect of it, posting a 49.1% Corsi For percentage while absorbing regular matchups against opponent top defensive units. That's not a mark of a player treading water in favorable circumstances. That's a player driving puck possession in hostile territory.

The mechanics of Smith's game point to deeper offensive growth. His 0.99 primary assists per 60 at 5-on-5 ranks among the league's elite for under-23 forwards—only Celebrini and Connor Bedard outpaced him. His goal-scoring was concentrated in high-danger areas, the byproduct of intelligent net navigation and finishing acumen, not volume inflation from inflated usage. His 12.51 relative goals-for percentage at even strength (12th in the NHL over two years) demolishes the narrative that he was simply riding Celebrini's coattails. On a -41 goal-differential team, Smith controlled play. That matters.

What's critical for the betting market: San Jose will almost certainly improve in 2026-27. The Sharks won't be a lottery squad anymore. And when a team ascends from non-playoff to playoff-adjacent, the gap between its top two scorers tightens. Celebrini's Hart-caliber 115 points aren't repeating—regression to 95–105 is more probable. Smith, meanwhile, was playing in defensive jail for most of last season. Lighter matchups, a team playing for wins instead of ping-pong balls, and accumulated chemistry with his linemate will push him toward 80+ points. The market hasn't priced that convergence yet.

For prop bettors, Smith's assists line becomes the clearest edge. At 69 games played last season with 0.99 primary assists per 60, he posted roughly 32 primary assists. Expand that to 82 games and weight for softer second-unit assignments (which he'll inherit as San Jose's depth improves), and 40+ primary assists is a realistic floor. If his season-long assists prop sits in the 38–42 range at preseason close, the over carries the sharper side of that market. Similarly, total points overs in the 75–82 band hold value; bettors still anchoring to last year's 59-point total haven't accounted for the compounding effects of team improvement and positional opportunity shift.