Abbott Faces a Brewers Lineup Built to Punish Left-Handed Pitching

The Brewers arrive at Wednesday's ESPN matchup having won the first two games of this four-game series and five consecutive contests against the Reds dating back to a sweep in Cincinnati from June 22-24. Milwaukee's 52-31 record gives them a 5½-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central and the second-best mark in baseball behind only the Dodgers. The Reds, sitting 39-45 and in fifth place in the division, send Andrew Abbott to the mound—the same left-hander who was an All-Star last season and finished eighth in NL Cy Young voting with a 2.87 ERA in 2025.

The problem for Abbott is straightforward: Milwaukee has built a lineup that extracts significant value against southpaws, and the Brewers have already taken his measure. Four Milwaukee hitters have homered off Abbott in his career, including Jackson Chourio, who is 3-for-7 with two home runs against the lefty. Chourio's split demonstrates something deeper than random variance—he has learned Abbott's sequencing and is executing against it. Abbott carries a 3.74 ERA in eight career starts against Milwaukee, a mark well above his divisional average, signaling that the Brewers' approach at the plate is systematically damaging his effectiveness.

Millaukee counters with Shane Drohan, a left-hander who made his MLB debut in relief in April and transitioned into the rotation on June 1. In five starts, Drohan has posted a 3.65 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 24⅔ innings. His recent outing against Cincinnati on June 24 is particularly relevant: he threw 4⅓ scoreless innings with five strikeouts at Great American Ball Park. The Reds have now faced Drohan twice in five days, and Cincinnati's inability to solve him in that June 24 matchup—when the pitcher was still finding his footing in the rotation—suggests limited offensive adjustments heading into tonight.

The betting angle centers on Reds team total and runs-scored props, which should lean downward. Drohan's strikeout rate (8.8 K/9) combined with Abbott's vulnerability to Milwaukee's lineup creates an asymmetric matchup. The Brewers have won seven of nine and are firing on all cylinders; the Reds finished June at 9-17 (.346) and remain fundamentally outmatched in this series. Abbott's 3.90 ERA this season masks the fact that his splits against top-heavy lineups deteriorate significantly. With Chourio primed to attack early and Milwaukee's recent offensive explosiveness (a four-run fourth inning powered their Tuesday victory), expect Cincinnati's run production to stay suppressed. The Reds have not solved this Brewers rotation, and adding Drohan's recent dominance against them tilts the expected outcome further in Milwaukee's favor.