2023 NFL Draft Class Fifth-Year Options: Who Got Secured, Who Got Cut Loose, and What It Means for 2026 Prop Markets

As Pro Football Rumors reported, May 1 was the deadline for NFL teams to exercise or decline fifth-year options on the 2023 first-round draft class, locking in 22 players for the 2027 season under fully guaranteed contracts while cutting loose eight others. The decisions carry real financial weight under the 2020 CBA structure — top-tier options like Zay Flowers ($27.3MM), Jalen Carter ($27.13MM), and C.J. Stroud ($25.9MM) reflect franchise-level investment. The eight declines — Anthony Richardson, Tyree Wilson, Broderick Jones, Emmanuel Forbes, Jack Campbell, Deonte Banks, Mazi Smith, Myles Murphy, and Felix Anudike-Uzomah — are now playing 2026 as walk-year players with no safety net.

The contract-year dynamic is one of the most underappreciated edges in prop betting. Players entering the final year of their rookie deal without a fifth-year option — or without a long-term extension already in place — are statistically motivated to produce. The pressure is existential. Richardson is the highest-profile name on the declined list, and the Colts' decision is damning: Indianapolis has seen enough of the 2023 No. 4 overall pick to know a $22.48MM fully guaranteed commitment isn't justified. That doesn't mean Richardson won't play — it means he's auditioning every snap in 2026, which creates volatility in both directions for his passing props.

On the exercised side, the Lions double down on their offensive engine with Jahmyr Gibbs ($14.29MM) secured, and the Ravens made the clearest statement of the cycle by committing $27.3MM to Zay Flowers — the highest option figure of any receiver in this class. Flowers has been ascending, and Baltimore locking him in at franchise-adjacent money signals he's penciled in as a featured target for Lamar Jackson through 2027. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($23.85MM) and Jordan Addison ($18MM) also have their roles formalized in Seattle and Minnesota, respectively. These aren't just roster moves — they're volume confirmations.

For prop bettors, the walk-year angle is where the real edge lives in 2026. Richardson's passing yards and touchdown lines will carry inflated uncertainty — sharps should expect wider spreads from books early in the season and look to exploit any opener that hasn't priced in his erratic floor. Conversely, Flowers, Gibbs, and Smith-Njigba enter 2026 as secured cornerstones of their respective offenses. Gibbs in particular — locked into Detroit's run-first system at a slot that reflects heavy usage benchmarks — is a strong lean for high rushing attempt and rushing yards totals throughout the season, especially in the first half of the year before Lions' playoff positioning shifts their game scripts. Broderick Jones' decline in Pittsburgh is worth watching too: an unsettled left tackle situation directly pressures whoever is behind center, and it adds a volatility layer to any Russell Wilson or Justin Fields passing line in 2026.

The meta-takeaway here is roster security as a prop signal. When a team exercises a fifth-year option, they're guaranteeing not just the money but the role. Books don't always adjust receiving and rushing lines fast enough to reflect that kind of organizational commitment. Target Flowers, Gibbs, and Smith-Njigba receiving and rushing props early in the 2026 season before the market fully prices in their locked-in usage. Fade Richardson's passing props in any spot where game script could go sideways — this is a player without a safety net throwing to a receiving corps that's still being assembled.