De La Cruz Hunting 30-30 With 10 Games Left—and the Dodgers Can't Stop Him

Elly De La Cruz is 2 homers and 4 steals away from joining one of baseball's most exclusive clubs. On Wednesday night, the Reds shortstop went deep against the Dodgers—his 28th home run of the season—while extending his on-base streak to 23 consecutive games. With 10 games remaining in Cincinnati's schedule and De La Cruz currently at 26 stolen bases, the arithmetic is tight. But the calendar and the opponent list suggest the path is viable.

What makes this push credible isn't just the raw counting stats. De La Cruz is performing at an elite level precisely when it matters. Over his 23-game hitting streak, he's batting .424 with a 1.273 OPS, eight homers, and four steals. That's not baseline performance held up by momentum—that's a player operating in the upper quartile of his ability. His plate discipline has sharpened: manager Terry Francona noted his balance at the plate allows him to "leverage the ball" and "use the whole field," which shrinks the effective strike zone. He's not chasing; he's dominating.

The Dodgers, specifically, have become a currency for De La Cruz's power. In six games this season against Los Angeles, he's hitting .429 with a 1.716 OPS and five homers. Over his 25-game career series, he owns a .302 average and seven homers. He's responsible for more than half (five of 13) of all runs Cincinnati has scored against the Dodgers this year. That's not variance—that's a structural mismatch favoring De La Cruz's swing plane and approach against their pitching.

From a prop perspective, De La Cruz's home run total in games remaining carries genuine edge. The market has likely priced in the 30-30 chase as a narrative tailwind (increasing his leverage usage and pitch selection), but hasn't fully discounted his individual dominance against specific opponents. Cincinnati plays Los Angeles three more times in the final ten games. Against any other team, De La Cruz's homer rate would be a coin flip down the stretch. Against the Dodgers—his personal power outlet—the edge tilts noticeably. His single-game homer props should carry sharp value in those three matchups, particularly early in the game when Dodgers relievers (who he's exploited more than their starters) enter the action.

The stolen base leg of 30-30 is the riskier angle. De La Cruz has swiped only four bags in his 23-game streak despite abundant on-base opportunities. That's a selection issue (Francona may be managing his legs, or the Reds' strategy prioritizes power over aggression late in games) rather than ability. With 10 games left and needing four steals, the math works—but it requires a shift in approach. Watch whether the Reds' green light changes in blowouts or early innings. That's the tell for whether 30-30 is a realistic outcome or a near-miss.