Boston's Injury Timeline Reshapes AL East Odds: When Anthony and Crochet Return Matters More Than Deadline Moves

Boston entered August as one of baseball's hottest teams on a per-game basis, compiling a 32-9 record since late June despite operating without Anthony, the organization's best hitter, and Crochet, its dominant starter who finished second in AL Cy Young voting last season. Per ESPN, the team's internal narrative around the trade deadline centered on health: if Anthony and Crochet return before the postseason window closes, the organization reasoned, those additions would dwarf any external acquisition.

The timeline remains murky. Anthony, who tore a tendon in his right wrist on May 4, has advanced only recently—beginning a swing progression late July and now hitting off a machine. That's progress measured in increments: he's cleared the immobility phase and is moving toward a rehab assignment, but no target date exists. Crochet landed on the IL in late April with shoulder inflammation and just resumed throwing from 60 feet last week. Both are genuinely weeks away from meaningful activity, not days. The shoulder injury, in particular, has a longer recovery arc than soft-tissue damage; pitchers throwing again doesn't mean competition-ready.

Yet the upside floor remains high enough to reshape September odds. Anthony is only 22 years old and slashed .292/.396/.463 last season before the oblique injury ended his year—elite contact rates for a player still in his developmental window. Crochet's 2025 record (18-5, 2.59 ERA) positioned him among the league's most dominant arms. Even a mid-September return for either player would provide a material boost to playoff positioning and tournament durability. The question isn't whether they'll help; it's whether they'll arrive in time to matter, and whether their ramp-up in live play happens cleanly.

For bettors, this creates a specific mechanism worth isolating: Red Sox moneyline and run-line value compresses the moment either player is reported close to activation. Markets will price the expectation of return far faster than the actual return happens. The current spread—Boston favored in most late-August matchups—already incorporates some of this injury recovery hope. What it may NOT fully price is the variance in timeline. If Crochet throws a live BP and experiences discomfort, the team resets; if Anthony's wrist swelling resurfaces during swings, rehab extends. Watch for teams (especially AL East rivals betting against Boston in early September) to offer inflated underdog numbers based on the assumption of dual returns that may slip into October.

Conversely, if both players clear IL and play meaningful innings in September, Red Sox postseason positioning jumps sharply. Their run-line margin of victory in the playoffs could widen from the current "near-toss" range (favored by 1 run or less in neutral games) into a 1.5–2 run favorite once live bats and arms integrate. That's a two-month edge-building window, but it compresses fast once medical clearance accelerates.