Astros Are Baseball's Most Broken Team: A 12-20 Record That's Going to Get Worse Before It Gets Better

The Houston Astros are in free fall. Entering Friday at 12-20 — second-worst record in MLB — Houston just needed a doubleheader split against Baltimore to avoid being swept, and still surrendered 15 combined runs to do it. This isn't a slump. This is structural collapse, and it runs from the bullpen mound all the way down to the depth chart.

The pitching situation is the headline, and it's ugly at every level. Closer Josh Hader has been on the IL since Opening Day. Bryan Abreu, one of the game's most dominant setup arms as recently as last season, has seen his fastball velocity crater by more than two ticks and is carrying an ERA approaching 13.00 — a number that belongs in a Little League box score, not a major league relief ledger. Enyel De Los Santos and Steven Okert, both of whom contributed meaningful innings in 2025, have regressed to the point of being liabilities. The rotation isn't much better: ace Hunter Brown is out with a shoulder strain, Tatsuya Imai hit the IL with arm fatigue after struggling post-NPB transition, Cristian Javier is shelved until at least June, and Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are both recovering from Tommy John surgery with no realistic return before the All-Star break. There is no cavalry coming. The cavalry is also hurt.

The lineup is the one functional organ in this body. Houston hitters are posting a .265/.346/.438 slash as a unit — genuinely above-average production. Yordan Alvarez is doing what Yordan Alvarez does, operating at an MVP-caliber pace and making opposing pitchers look foolish. Christian Walker has looked better at the plate than at any point in his career. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are both producing at above-average rates. Isaac Paredes has found his footing after a slow April. But even this bright spot has shadows: Jeremy Peña has played just 10 games due to a broken finger and hamstring strain, Jake Meyers went down with an oblique injury after 12 games, and Joey Loperfido strained his quad after 20 contests. The team is now routinely starting Braden Shewmake, Daniel Johnson, and Dustin Harris — depth fillers, not contributors.

For bettors, the actionable edge is clear and it points in one direction: target Houston's opponents on team totals and monitor the Astros' own number with sharp skepticism. Opposing offenses are feasting on this bullpen every single night, and the rotation's injury attrition means starters are getting yanked early, handing the game to a relief corps that has no business holding leads. Games involving Houston are playing over at an alarming rate, and until Hader returns and Abreu rediscovers his velocity, there is no reason to expect that to change. Yordan Alvarez total bases and RBI props remain attractive on the positive side — he's carrying this lineup and seeing premium counts because pitchers are working around him with the supporting cast depleted.

Longer term, the Astros' depth problem compounds the pitching crisis in a way that makes even a mid-season correction look optimistic. When your answer to a decimated roster is waiver wire bodies, you're not managing through adversity — you're managing decline. Back Houston opponents, lean toward overs in their games, and ride Alvarez individual props while the rest of the lineup remains thin. The market will catch up eventually. It hasn't fully gotten there yet.