Oneil Cruz Is Having a Barry Bonds-Level Start — and the Props Aren't Catching Up

Oneil Cruz is rewriting Pittsburgh history in real time. As MLB.com reported, Cruz homered in the fifth inning Sunday at Oracle Park — his 10th of the season — and added his 15th stolen base, making him just the third player since 1900 to reach that dual threshold before his 40th game, joining Eric Davis (1987) and Lou Brock (1967). The only Pirate ever to do it: Barry Bonds. The Pirates lost 7-6 in 12 innings, but Cruz's place in the record books is secure.

What makes this stretch sustainable — not just a hot streak — is the mechanical foundation Cruz laid in the offseason. Manager Don Kelly flagged it explicitly: Cruz is drawing walks at a career-unprecedented rate, logging 129 free passes since the start of 2024 after totaling just 35 in his first three MLB seasons combined. That patience isn't window dressing. It means pitchers can no longer attack him recklessly, which in turn creates better counts for his plus raw power to play. Sunday's opposite-field homer against San Francisco confirmed the adjustment is real — oppo-field power from a guy who profiles as a pull hitter signals genuine bat control, not just hot months on fastballs.

The speed profile is equally locked in. Cruz's 15 steals rank third in the Majors, and at 6-foot-7, he's doing it with elite reads and jump rather than pure top-end sprint speed alone. Marcell Ozuna, who arrived in spring training and watched the transformation up close, put it plainly: the approach is different, Cruz feels in control, and the results track. This isn't a player running hot — it's a player who restructured his offensive identity and is now executing against it at a high clip.

For bettors, Cruz's stolen-base props are the clearest inefficiency in the market right now. With 15 steals through 41 games, he's on pace for 59-plus on the season. Single-game stolen-base props — typically set at 0.5 with juice toward the over — should be targeted aggressively when Cruz is in the lineup and the opposing battery features a slow-to-the-plate starter or a catcher grading below average on pop time. His home run props deserve similar attention: 10 HR in 41 games puts him on a 39-HR pace, and yet his HR/game prop lines haven't consistently reflected that elevation. On team totals, Pittsburgh's offense is more dangerous than its market perception — Cruz scoring six runs across three games in San Francisco alone illustrates the top-of-order run-creation engine the Pirates now carry. Pirates team totals in the 3.5-to-4.5 range on nights Cruz is hitting leadoff deserve a second look on the over.