Sam Carrick's Return Gives Buffalo a Faceoff Lifeline Heading Into Round 2 vs. Montreal

Sam Carrick is back on the ice for Buffalo. As ESPN reported, the Sabres center resumed full practice Tuesday and is expected to slot back into the lineup for Game 1 of the second-round series against Montreal on Wednesday night, returning ahead of the medical schedule after wrenching his left arm in a fight on March 31. Coach Lindy Ruff didn't pin down an exact date, but his logic was clear: once you're practicing, you're days away from playing. With Game 1 at home Wednesday and Game 2 Friday, the math points to an immediate return.

Carrick's absence hurt Buffalo more than the box score reflected. The 10-year veteran, acquired from the Rangers on March 5, took over as the fourth-line center and quickly became the team's go-to faceoff option in critical late-game situations — particularly in the defensive zone, where a clean draw can be the difference between a kill and a goal against. He won 82 of 143 faceoffs in a Sabres uniform, a 57.3% clip. Without him through the final seven regular-season games and the entire six-game first-round win over Boston, Buffalo's faceoff percentage cratered. The Sabres entered Tuesday at 43.8%, dead last among the 16 remaining playoff teams. That's not a minor inefficiency — that's a structural liability against a Canadiens team that will look to exploit every defensive-zone possession it can generate.

Layering the problem further: rookie center Noah Ostlund (lower left leg) has already been ruled out for Round 2. Buffalo's depth at center was already thin. Carrick's return doesn't just fill a roster spot — it restores the only proven faceoff weapon the Sabres have. Ruff's usage pattern was deliberate: Carrick wasn't being deployed for offense. He was deployed to win critical draws, eat minutes on the fourth line, and protect leads. That role becomes even more pronounced in a playoff series where defensive-zone structure will be tested every night.

For bettors, Carrick's return has a direct read-through to Buffalo's goals-against and team-total pricing. A team that loses 56% of its faceoffs surrenders significantly more shot attempts and high-danger chances off the draw — particularly in the defensive zone, where NHL data consistently shows that losing the faceoff leads to a shot on net within three seconds on roughly 30% of draws. Carrick winning those draws back at a 57% rate compresses Montreal's easiest path to generating volume. Watch the Canadiens' shots-on-goal totals in Games 1 and 2: if Carrick is in the lineup and winning draws at his established rate, the case for fading high Habs shot totals gets stronger. The BUF team total is also worth watching — Buffalo's inability to control puck possession off faceoffs suppressed their own offensive-zone time. Getting Carrick back theoretically opens the door for more sustained offensive-zone shifts, which supports the Sabres' forward shot volume.

The cleaner lean here is on the defensive side. Buffalo's goals-against exposure was elevated throughout Round 1 in part because of faceoff losses compounding into shot volume. With Carrick back and Ruff deploying him in the situations that matter most, expect tighter defensive-zone control from the Sabres. That supports under angles on BUF goals-against in early games and keeps the series total in play at the lower end of whatever line the market opens Wednesday.