Ottawa's Blue-Line Arithmetic: Why Spence's Breakout Season Makes Him Expendable

Jordan Spence delivered on the low-cost acquisition the Senators made when they grabbed him from Los Angeles for mid-round picks. The 25-year-old Australian defenseman appeared in 73 games, posted 31 points, and—more importantly—didn't crater Ottawa's underlying defensive metrics when paired with almost anyone. With Tyler Kleven across 62 games, Spence held a 1.87 expected goals against per 60 minutes that matched Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub's pairing. His individual analytics were sharper: top-20 among full-time defensemen in on-ice goals percentage at 58.3%, and league-leading in xGA/60 at 2.11. By every binding measure, he produced like a legitimate NHL blueliner who could anchor a third pair while contributing offensively.

The math, though, is where Ottawa's roster-building calculus breaks down. Spence, Sanderson, Zub, and Thomas Chabot all averaged 30-plus points this season—a luxury that reads like depth until you realize it's actually redundancy. The Senators constructed a blue line of interchangeable two-way forward-oriented defenders. What they don't have is a true defensive anchor in the top four, the kind of heavy shutdown presence that kills penalties and absorbs defensive zone work without bleeding scoring chances. Zub approximates that role; the rest are variants on the same theme. Re-signing Spence locks in that redundancy for another deal's length, betting that lineup saturation at the midline somehow improves the team's competitive window.

The resource constraint sharpens the choice. With $17 million in cap space and unrestricted free agents like Claude Giroux and Nick Cousins requiring attention, the Senators are preparing to chase impact players who address what they're actually missing: a legitimate secondary scoring threat or a defensive structure overhaul. Keeping Spence means absorbing salary that could migrate to a forward addition or a true defensive difference-maker. At 25 with room to grow, he'd be a strong piece on a team with cap room and depth holes elsewhere. On this Senators roster, he's the piece that gets traded or left unqualified so Ottawa can pivot.

The emergence of Carter Yakemchuk—seventh overall two drafts ago, already competent in limited NHL exposure—further tips the ledger. If Spence and Yakemchuk are competing for the third-pair righty slot alongside Kleven, Yakemchuk's cost and upside trajectory favor the younger option. Yakemchuk's serviceable play in four regular-season games and one playoff appearance signals the Senators can plug that spot internally while preserving cap flexibility. Spence's strong season paradoxically made him more trade-eligible, not more essential. A restricted free agent coming off a 31-point season commands a bridge deal in the $5-6 million range if Ottawa qualifies him—money the team would rather deploy elsewhere.

For prop-betting purposes, this roster composition trend shapes Senators defensive workload expectations. If Spence departs, Ottawa's blue-line deployment shifts toward less-balanced ice time distribution; Sanderson and Zub absorb heavier minutes, and Yakemchuk assumes a more prominent role than Spence occupied. That concentration could elevate individual assist and point props for Sanderson (who already logged 30-plus) while depressing overall Senators defenseman assist totals as a group. If Spence stays on a team-friendly deal, his minutes remain capped by the logjam, suppressing his personal scoring props even if his underlying process stays sound. The market may price Spence's re-signing as a positive outcome; the budget reality suggests the Senators are building toward his exit.