Packers Kicker Carousel Continues: Havrisik Out, Krieg In, and the Betting Implications

The Packers released Lucas Havrisik and signed Lenny Krieg on Tuesday, marking another chapter in what has become a revolving door at kicker. The transaction itself is unremarkable on its surface—kicker churn happens every offseason—but the timing and pattern matter. We're roughly five weeks from training camp and Green Bay still hasn't locked in its most reliable source of consistent scoring.

Havrisik was brought in to compete, but he didn't win the internal audition. That suggests two possibilities: either the Packers view Krieg as a measurably better option (trajectory metrics, distance, accuracy in private workouts), or neither candidate has inspired confidence and the team is simply cycling through bodies in hopes one sticks. The latter scenario is the operative one here. The Packers haven't found their man, and that instability matters more than the individual names involved.

When an NFL team is still shopping at the kicker position this close to camp, it usually means the incumbent didn't perform—or the front office didn't believe in the incumbent's consistency going forward. Krieg gets an audition, but there's no reason to assume he's the solution. This is desperation shuffling dressed up as roster management. The Packers' offensive weapons and defensive investments suggest they're built to compete now; they can't afford to leave points on the field because of unreliable leg talent.

From a betting angle, this instability seeps into two prop markets. First, team totals. Green Bay's over/under will be priced assuming a baseline field-goal conversion rate—typically 85-90% in modern NFL models. If neither Havrisik nor Krieg maintains that standard, the Packers' total offensive output (measured in points) compresses. The market may not fully adjust for the variance introduced by an unproven kicker, especially if Krieg comes with limited recent game tape. Second, close-game scenarios become riskier to forecast. When you can't trust your kicker in tight contests, spreads and moneylines on Packers games become noisier—the margin of victory becomes less predictable. Books will price this in eventually, but early-week lines before Krieg proves himself represent the best window to exploit the uncertainty.