Packers Lock In Lukas Van Ness on Fifth-Year Option — A $13.75M Bet on Ceiling Over Production

Green Bay is exercising Lukas Van Ness' fifth-year option, per The Athletic's Matt Schneidman, triggering a $13.75 million guarantee for the 2023 first-round pick in 2026. The decision locks in a player who has yet to live up to his draft pedigree but now owns the starting EDGE spot opposite Preston Smith after the Packers moved Rashan Gary to Cleveland earlier this offseason.

Van Ness has logged three underwhelming seasons by any sack-sheet metric — the kind of production that typically lands a player in the 'prove it' territory of a one-year deal, not a guaranteed eighth-figure commitment. But context matters here. Gary's trade wasn't a salary dump in isolation; it was a deliberate clearing of the runway. The Packers are not hedging. They are choosing Van Ness as a foundational piece of their pass rush, which means 2026 becomes his defining audition for a long-term extension — or his last act in Green Bay.

From a football mechanics standpoint, Van Ness has flashed the athleticism that made him a top-13 pick out of Iowa — he simply hasn't converted it consistently into disruption at the line. His pass-rush win rate and pressure numbers have trended modestly upward, and at 23 years old entering 2026, the development curve argument is not irrational. Green Bay's front office is betting that a full-time starting role, unencumbered by a rotation with Gary, accelerates that trajectory. Whether that's sound roster construction or wishful thinking depends entirely on what Van Ness produces this fall.

For bettors, this move reshapes how you look at Green Bay's defensive team props and season-win-total positioning. A pass rush anchored by Van Ness — rather than a proven disruptor like Gary — introduces real variance in the Packers' ability to win games where Jordan Love isn't playing at peak efficiency. Green Bay's current win total sits in the 9-10 range depending on the book. If Van Ness doesn't take a meaningful step forward, this defense becomes a liability in close games, and the under on that win total gains significant traction. Watch how the line moves once training camp performance becomes available — Van Ness' sack and pressure numbers in August will be a leading indicator.

On the player prop side, Van Ness' sack total for 2026 is worth monitoring as an early market. Books will likely open him somewhere in the 6-8 sack range given the increased opportunity. Given his history of underperformance against that type of expectation and an offensive schedule that includes multiple mobile quarterbacks who neutralize speed rushers, fading the over on his sack total at any number above 7 looks like the sharper side — at least until he proves otherwise.