Garrett's Rams Move Resets DPOY Odds—And Exposes the Market's Recency Bias

Myles Garrett was traded to the Rams this week, and the betting market immediately installed him as the favorite to win his third Defensive Player of the Year award at +450. That makes him one of only four defensive players—alongside Lawrence Taylor, J.J. Watt, and Aaron Donald—to reach the three-time DPOY plateau. The narrative is clean: elite pass rusher, fresh team, full season ahead. The market loves the story. But the story is not the mechanism.

Garrett's two DPOY wins in 2023 and 2025 were built on a specific infrastructure in Cleveland: Sean Desai's defense weaponized Garrett's two-hand swipe and interior penetration by pairing him with elite interior linemen and forcing offenses into predictable passing situations in the first and second downs. The Browns ran the eighth-ranked run defense by EPA per play last season; opponents stayed in obvious passing calls, and Garrett attacked downhill with speed rather than coverage instinct. His sack rate was 8.1% of opponent pass plays—elite—but that's a team-dependent number. Sean McVay's Rams defense runs a different philosophy: gap control and pre-snap deception rather than aggressive line penetration. Garrett will have to retrain his leverage points, and the Rams' secondary will not manufacture the same volume of obvious passing situations that the Browns' run defense did.

Will Anderson of the Texans sits at +750. Maxx Crosby and Aidan Hutchinson are both +800. Here's what matters: Anderson plays for a team that has improved its pass-rush infrastructure by adding elite run-stopper options; Texans offenses will remain weak enough to force passing situations. Crosby and Hutchinson both play in defensive schemes (Raiders and Lions) that prioritize individual disruptive plays over team-level scheme coherence—their sack totals are less dependent on supporting cast. Garrett's odds do not account for the structural downgrade in supporting cast or scheme fit. The market priced in his DPOY pedigree without repricing his mechanism.

The +450 is a fresh-team overcorrection. It assumes momentum and elite talent survive a scheme transplant, but DPOY is a counting stat (sacks, tackles) wrapped in a narrative award. Garrett's sack baseline was sustainable in Cleveland because the run defense forced passing downs; that infrastructure travels to Los Angeles only if the Rams' defensive line performs better than it has in recent seasons. McVay has prioritized coverage and blitz timing over straight-line pressure for three years. Garrett's arrival does not reverse that philosophy overnight. The market is betting on Garrett's name and contract size rather than on his environment.

This is a fade-heavy spot. Anderson's +750 has practical edge because he's in a scheme that will continue to generate obvious passing situations (Texans offense, improving run defense). Crosby at +800 has path-to-win because the Raiders scheme tolerates individual-level dominance. Garrett at +450 is a directional bet on elite talent, not a mechanism bet. Early season (weeks 1–4) sack and pressure totals for Garrett will be instructive: if he's generating pressure at his Cleveland rates, the line tightens and the angle closes. If he's at 65–75% of his Cleveland pressure rate, that's the tell that the scheme downgrade is real.