Ohtani's Leadoff Power Is Rewriting Dodgers History—And Creating a Volume Edge

Shohei Ohtani took Shota Imanaga deep to lead off Wednesday's series finale against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, his 25th home run of the season and his 11th leadoff blast in 2026. That blast was his 29th career leadoff homer in a Dodgers uniform, moving him past Davey Lopes into second place on the franchise's all-time ledger. Only Mookie Betts stands ahead with 32 leadoff home runs as a Dodger—a mark Ohtani could reach with four more opening-inning shots this season.

The mechanical picture behind Ohtani's leadoff success traces to a specific vulnerability he's exploiting. Against Imanaga, he worked a full count before fouling off multiple pitches, then connected on an elevated four-seamer down the middle on the seventh pitch. The Statcast numbers—376 feet projected, 110.2 mph exit velo—fit a pattern: Ohtani's approach in the leadoff spot prioritizes early aggression mixed with pitch discipline. He's not chasing; he's waiting for mistakes in hitter's counts and punishing them with raw bat speed. This is distinct from his overall at-bat profile, where he'll take walks and work deeper counts. Leadoff appearances compress the sample size but amplify variance—a single extra-base hit swings game script early.

Ohtani has now hit 134 homers in his first three seasons with Los Angeles, placing him in rare company. Only Mark McGwire (159 for St. Louis), Alex Rodriguez (156 for Texas), and Babe Ruth (148 for the Yankees) have surpassed that total in their opening trio with a new franchise. The Dodgers are seeking to end a five-game losing streak, and early offense—particularly Ohtani's early offense—directly correlates to their ability to control game pace and leverage their bullpen depth in middle innings.

For prop bettors, Ohtani's leadoff home run rate (11 in roughly 145 games through early August, or a 7.6% clip when he bats first) sits well above his overall home run pace. The market doesn't price leadoff appearances separately on most books—they're baked into his nightly HR and total bases lines. But when the Dodgers announce Ohtani will bat leadoff against a pitcher he's seen multiple times, his HR probability for that game increases relative to the standard single-game prop. Imanaga, now in his second year facing Ohtani, represents a pitcher trending toward familiarity, which should theoretically reduce Ohtani's edge. But the volume of leadoff bats matters: the more games Ohtani leads off for LA down the stretch, the more opportunities he has to pad his Betts-record chase, and the more his nightly home run line should reflect elevated leverage and aggression from the leadoff box.

The Dodgers' five-game skid compounds this angle. Teams pressing to end losing streaks often signal their best hitters to attack early counts, shortening innings and manufacturing quick runs. Ohtani's 11 leadoff homers already this season—on pace for 12-13 over a full year—exceed his typical 8-10 range. That acceleration isn't noise; it reflects a conscious strategic shift in how Los Angeles deploys him in the opening inning. As he closes in on Betts' franchise record, expect his leadoff aggression to remain elevated, making his game-by-game home run line worth tracking against the opening number.