Reds Closer Emilio Pagan Carted Off With Hamstring Injury, Cincinnati's Bullpen Situation Just Got Worse

As ESPN reported, Cincinnati Reds closer Emilio Pagan is headed to the injured list after crumpling to the ground on the first pitch of the ninth inning Tuesday night in Chicago, grabbing the back of his left leg before being carted off Wrigley Field's grass. Manager Terry Francona confirmed Pagan will undergo imaging Wednesday to assess the severity of a left hamstring injury — the kind of exam where the best-case outcome is still a multi-week absence.

The timing is brutal for a Cincinnati club that has now dropped five straight, including three consecutive one-run losses after opening the year 7-0 in those exact situations. Pagan's injury didn't cause Tuesday's 3-2 extra-inning defeat — José Franco stepped in, walked two, and escaped the ninth — but the Cubs pushed a run across in the 10th to seal their 13th straight home win. The Reds didn't just lose a closer; they lost the game, the series, and potentially their grip on late-inning reliability for weeks.

Pagan was already a liability before his leg gave out. The 34-year-old right-hander carries a 6.43 ERA this season and was walked off in his previous appearance Monday, surrendering both the tying and winning run in the ninth. Six saves look fine on paper; the underlying performance was not. The hamstring injury essentially accelerates what was becoming an uncomfortable conversation in Cincinnati — who closes games for this team? Franco is the most likely internal option, but he hasn't been stretched for that role, and the Reds' bullpen depth has already been tested by the Williamson shoulder IL stint. This is a back-end that was already cracking.

From a betting standpoint, the ripple effects hit Cincinnati team totals and first-five-inning lines in different ways. Reds team totals have been suppressed partly because opponents knew what was coming in the ninth — a shaky but nominally established closer. With that anchor gone and Franco or an untested arm inheriting save situations, expect blown leads and additional run-scoring opportunities in the late innings, which inflates opponent scoring rather than Cincinnati's own output. For tonight and the coming week, lean toward overs on Reds opponent team totals and be skeptical of Cincinnati run-line favorites when games are close entering the seventh. The nrfi angle on Reds home games also becomes more interesting as managers may turn to higher-leverage arms earlier, disrupting typical bullpen sequencing.

The broader Cincinnati team total picture is also worth watching. The Reds rank in the bottom third of the league in bullpen ERA, and now their highest-leverage arm is in a walking boot being scanned at a Chicago hospital. Sharp money will adjust closer lines and live totals the moment Pagan's MRI results circulate — and if this is a significant tear rather than a mild strain, the Reds' path back to late-inning competence runs through a trade deadline still months away.