Crochet's Shoulder Setback Extends Boston's Ace Drought

Garrett Crochet's recovery timeline just shifted backward. Red Sox manager Chad Tracy announced Monday that the left-hander, sidelined since April 29 with left shoulder inflammation and lat tightness, failed his scheduled reevaluation and remains barred from beginning a formal throwing program. Crochet had been throwing plyo balls in recent days with optimism that a return to mound work was imminent; that optimism no longer holds.

The timing compounds Boston's rotation crisis. Crochet arrived in 2025 as a legitimate Cy Young contender after finishing second in AL voting with a 2.59 ERA and 255 strikeouts—the most in the majors—across 205 1/3 innings. This season he posted a 6.30 ERA across six starts before the injury forced him to the shelf. Nearly two months into the injury (53 days since placement on the IL), he remains stuck in early-stage rehab rather than progressing toward game action. A conservative reevaluation result signals either slower soft-tissue healing than expected or medical caution around re-injury risk—neither scenario points to a quick resolution.

For a rotation already thin after losing Crochet, the absence now extends into July and likely August. Even an optimistic mid-to-late summer return would sacrifice 15-20 starts from the team's most reliable arm. The Red Sox pitching depth chart becomes increasingly reliant on secondary starters who lack Crochet's strikeout profile and margin for error.

From a betting lens, Crochet's extended absence removes one of baseball's premier strikeout props from circulation and forces bettors to recalibrate Boston's offense-dependent ceiling for the remainder of the season. With Crochet absent, the Red Sox lean harder on lineup production to generate wins, which tightens margins in close contests. Team totals for Boston games now carry embedded risk from subpar run support scenarios that wouldn't exist if Crochet were available to minimize opponent scoring. Additionally, markets have already priced in the absence for near-term starts, but the durational uncertainty—whether he returns in 4 weeks or 8—creates daily repricing risk. Any news that accelerates or delays his return beyond the current "mid-summer at earliest" expectation will swing those market assumptions immediately.