Kodai Senga Back on the IL With Spinal Inflammation, Christian Scott Gets the Call

Per the team's announcement Tuesday, Kodai Senga has been placed on the 15-day injured list with lumbar spinal inflammation, and right-hander Christian Scott has been recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to fill the roster spot. This is not a precautionary move. Lumbar spinal inflammation is a structural issue that tends to linger, and for a pitcher who has already lost significant chunks of the past two seasons to arm and shoulder problems, the concern here isn't just July — it's whether Senga can be a reliable rotation piece at all in 2025.

Senga was the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up and looked like a front-line starter capable of anchoring a contender's rotation. Then the injuries came. A calf issue cost him most of 2024, and now a back problem — one of the more unpredictable and slow-healing ailments in baseball — is shelving him again before he could establish any meaningful rhythm. His standing in the Mets' organizational hierarchy has slipped considerably, and this IL stint only accelerates that slide. At some point, the conversation shifts from 'when does Senga return' to 'what can the Mets actually count on from him.'

Christian Scott is the direct beneficiary here. The 25-year-old right-hander showed legitimate mid-rotation upside in his 2024 debut before his own elbow issues intervened. He's healthy now, and the Mets need him to eat innings. Scott sits in the low-to-mid 90s with a slider that misses bats at a solid clip — he's not Senga's ceiling, but he's a functional starter who gives New York a real arm rather than a spot-start patchwork solution.

From a betting standpoint, Senga's absence tightens the Mets' rotation depth immediately. New York's team totals had already been pricing in a functional four-man core — lose Senga for two-plus weeks and Scott's strikeout ceiling and pitch-count management become the operative variables on nights he starts. Scott punched out batters at roughly a 22% K-rate in his 2024 sample, respectable but not elite. His strikeout props, likely to open in the 4.5-5.5 range, deserve a closer look — lean toward the under in his first start back until he proves he can sustain that rate in his second tour through a lineup. Meanwhile, Mets team totals in Scott's starts should price in a modest step down in run prevention relative to what Senga represented on paper, even if Senga's actual 2025 numbers hadn't justified that premium yet.

The broader Mets rotation picture is now genuinely thin. If you've been backing New York on the moneyline at a discount to their talent level, this is the moment to reassess. A back injury with no clear timetable, a rotation leaning on Scott and depth arms, and a bullpen that will absorb more innings — that's a recipe for softer pitching performance across the board. Fade the Mets' run-prevention story until Senga is back and healthy, and even then, proceed with skepticism.