Mets Offense Is a Disaster and the Market Still Hasn't Fully Priced It In

The New York Mets are in freefall. As ESPN reported, manager Carlos Mendoza arrived at Citi Field on Tuesday fully aware that Alex Cora and Rob Thomson — two well-regarded managers of big-market clubs — were fired within four days of each other, and that he's next in line if results don't turn. His team has lost 15 of 17 games, shares the worst record in baseball with the Philadelphia Phillies, and just got swept by the Colorado Rockies — a franchise that lost 119 games last season. The Mets scored one run across 18 innings on Sunday and four runs in the entire series. This is not a slump. This is structural.

The offensive numbers are brutal at every level. New York ranks dead last in runs scored, OPS, and wRC+. They've been held to two runs or fewer in 14 of their first 28 games. And the injury situation isn't helping: Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco, and starting pitcher Kodai Senga are all on the IL, with Juan Soto and Luis Robert nursing ailments that cloud their availability going forward. Mendoza's roster, assembled by president of baseball operations David Stearns through an aggressive offseason overhaul, was supposed to be a contender. Right now it can't beat a rebuilding team in a doubleheader.

Mendoza, 46 and entering his third season at the helm, is operating as a lame duck — his 2027 club option has not been exercised, and neither owner Steve Cohen nor Stearns has apparently felt the need to reassure him. His 2024 NLCS run earned him goodwill, but last season's collapse from best record in baseball in mid-June to missing the playoffs on the final day wiped most of it out. The front office restructured the coaching staff and the roster around him. The early returns are, in Mendoza's own framing, business as usual — which at this point means losing.

For bettors, the Mets' team totals are the most actionable number on the board right now. New York is scoring fewer than 3.3 runs per game over this stretch, yet sportsbooks continue to post team totals in the 4.0–4.5 range given the names on the roster — Soto, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor when healthy. The market is pricing potential, not performance. With Lindor and Polanco sidelined and Soto listed as day-to-day, the lineup depth craters immediately. Back-of-the-rotation starters and even mid-tier bullpen arms have been eating this offense alive. Fading the Mets team total — especially in home games where the Citi Field crowd has turned — is a numbers-backed angle, not a gut call.

The Mets' opponent total is worth monitoring, too. When a team's offense goes cold this comprehensively, the psychological weight lands on the pitching staff and defense. Errors and unearned runs pile up when a club is demoralized. Until Lindor returns and the lineup finds any semblance of consistency, the under on the Mets' side of the ledger is the sharpest recurring play in the NL. Mendoza says his energy is on his players, not his job status. The market should be spending its energy fading his lineup.