Lars Nootbaar Rehab Timeline Points to Early June Return — What It Means for St. Louis Lineup Construction

Lars Nootbaar is on schedule to begin a rehab assignment the week of May 10, per manager Oli Marmol — placing the Cardinals outfielder on track for a best-case early June return after spending the entire first two months of the season on the 60-day IL. Nootbaar underwent bilateral heel surgery last October to correct Haglund's deformities and never appeared in a Spring Training game, a slower recovery than St. Louis had anticipated when it held off on shopping him at the winter meetings.

The Cardinals, sitting at 19-13, have been one of baseball's quiet overachievers. Their offense ranks sixth in MLB with a 107 team wRC+, and the engine behind that number is Jordan Walker, who has erupted for a 166 wRC+ and nine home runs through 134 plate appearances. There's a catch: Walker is batting .394 on balls in play. That number doesn't survive a full season. Regression is coming, and when it does, the Cardinals' lineup depth gets tested fast. Victor Scott II is posting a 30 wRC+ in center, and Nathan Church isn't doing much better at 91 wRC+ in left. St. Louis is winning in spite of its outfield corners, not because of them.

Nootbaar himself isn't a sure thing. He was a legitimate offensive contributor from 2022–24, posting a 114 wRC+ or better in each of those seasons and accumulating 7.4 fWAR despite missing stretches to injury. But 2025 told a different story — career-high playing time, career-low offensive output (.234/.325/.361, 96 wRC+), and declining range in the outfield. The heels likely explain some of that drop, and a full offseason surgery could restore him. It could also be the beginning of a new normal.

From a team total standpoint, the Cardinals' current numbers carry real fragility. Walker's BABIP-driven surge is masking a thin outfield and what has been inconsistent run production outside of him. St. Louis team totals in the 4.0–4.5 range have looked reasonable given the offensive ranking, but bettors pricing the Cardinals purely on their 2026 wRC+ are leaning into a sample built on an outlier performance. The smart play is to track Walker's BABIP over the next two to three weeks — if it starts normalizing toward the .310–.320 range, Cardinals team totals become significantly more vulnerable, especially against above-average pitching. Nootbaar's return won't be a lineup upgrade overnight; a 20-day rehab assignment after two months of inactivity means the Cardinals are at least six to eight weeks away from knowing what version of him they're getting back.

For now, the Cardinals are a team worth respecting but not blindly backing on the run line or over totals. The offense is real enough to win games, but it's built on a foundation that includes one unsustainable hot streak and two below-average outfield bats. Nootbaar's rehab timeline is a story to monitor — not because his return is a guaranteed boost, but because the moment Walker cools, St. Louis will need him to be the 2022–24 version rather than the 2025 one.