Holmes Clears Live BP Milestone: Mets' Ace On Track for All-Star Break Return

Clay Holmes stepped on the mound at Citi Field on Friday for the first time since May 15, when a 111.1 mph comebacker from Spencer Jones fractured his right fibula. The Mets right-hander threw 40 pitches—approximately two innings—to Marcus Semien in a simulated game setting, moving past the passive phase of his recovery and into live action against a hitter in the box. Holmes showed no complications during the session, and interim manager Andy Green's assessment was unambiguous: "It looked like Clay."

The timing matters. Holmes has been sidelined for nearly two months, missing 56 days of the season at a point when the Mets needed him most. Before the injury, he was the team's best arm: 4-4 with a 2.39 ERA across nine starts, accumulating 1.9 bWAR—tied for second on the roster. That kind of production from a reliever-turned-starter doesn't grow back idly. The progression from this simulated session to actual game reps will move to Florida during the All-Star break, likely placing Holmes on a mid-to-late July timetable for a rehab assignment and early-August return. The Mets' rotation depth has held together in his absence, but his reinsertion into the order changes the ceiling for their second-half push.

From a betting lens, Holmes's recovery trajectory opens two windows. First, the immediate bet is that he WILL return before August 15—the recovery timeline is tracking predictably, with no setbacks reported and the team already accelerating him to live BP. The industry may still carry some discount on Mets starting pitcher strikeout props because Holmes has been out so long; when he does rejoin, those same prop markets will reprune upward once the market confirms he's back at full velo. Second, and more durable: Holmes as a target for Mets pitching strikeout props post-return. His pre-injury K rate was high-volume (he struck out 10+ per nine innings as a starter in 2025), and the regression-to-the-mean angle is weak here because his underlying stuff—the same stuff Green saw move "all over the place" on Friday—hasn't degraded. A 57-day absence doesn't erase fastball command. Watch for his first two starts post-return to carry modest juice on the over side, before the market re-anchors to his baseline.

Semien's parallel rehab update is a secondary signal. The second baseman took live batting practice without incident after appearing in Holmes's simulated session, signaling the Mets could have both pieces back in play within weeks. That layered return—starting pitcher and everyday infielder—would materially shift Mets team total expectations, both in run production and pitching depth.